Thanks Spencer Greenberg hosting me on the Clearer Thinking podcast.
I would love to have you listen and share with others. It was a fun conversation and covers many themes that overlap with Venture Patterns.
Topics include:
-Decision analysis in venture
-Arguments for and against quantification in decision making
-Combining expert judgement with AI or other models
-Value of new information and reducing uncertainty
-Base rates in prediction
-Motivated reasoning
-Implications of power law in startups and VC
-Self-reinforcing risk seeking
-Portfolio construction in venture
-Why we should have more startups
-Will there be a startup more valuable than any startup ever before?
-How do reduce the risk of becoming a founder
-Founders born, made, or lucky?
-Importance of trial and error
-The nature of innovation in for-profit and nonprofit
-Contrasting incentives for for-profits and nonprofits
-Variance in nonprofit’s impact
-The infinite future
-And the wisdom and governance challenges to getting there
Sources include:
- Article: Ulu Ventures on portfolio construction
- Excel Model: Ulu Ventures on Github
- Fermi Estimates
- Article: Why do VCs insist on only investing in high-risk, high-return companies?
- Article: Power Laws in Venture Portfolio Construction
- Book: How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business
- Book: SuperForecasting
- Article: Why We Need More Founders
- Book: How Innovation Works
- Book: The Beginning of Infinity
- Venture Patterns: Entrepreneurs – Born, Made or Lucky?
- Venture Patterns: Who Becomes an Innovator in America?
- Paul Graham’s Essays